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recession

All the signs are here but central bankers are either in denial or doing exactly the wrong thing.

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Australia has long been a dangerous environment in the housing market. It was, in relative terms, barely affected by the global financial crisis and rampant inflation has been ignored by national and state governments, both of which have significant influence over the market. It's a bizarre market: the signs of imminent collapse are ignored and prices continue to rise, causing excessive borrowing and thousands of families trapped in rentals because they cannot afford to buy. New South Wales has today announced significant changes to the taxes under its control to try to fix some of the causes of under-supply. But interest rates, the most important weapon, are in federal hands.

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For the goldfish amongst us and those who are too young to know and, especially, those who simply don't think history has anything to tell us, here is something to note: crises hit us every few years. The superficial causes are viewed as significant but in truth, most crises result from one thing: overstated balance sheets and the fact that those who have naively accepted them suddenly discover that not one, not two but many companies are not worth the paper they are written on. Literally.

Pay attention

We are back in the times of asset value restatement with several examples in the past month alone.

BIScom Subsection: 

Two days ago, the British government told TATA that it would not underwrite loan guarantees without conditions (story). TATA didn't like that - and said the UK Government was putting jobs at risk. Today, TATA owned CORUS, the rump of what was British Steel, says it is mothballing its Teesside plant at a cost of 2,000 jobs.

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Ford says it doesn't need state aid, at least not yet. GM says it's on the verge of bankruptcy. And Chrysler says so little it seems stunned as the US Senate says it will not make direct loans to the Auto sector, pointing out that this is the job of the banks which have been told they can have USD700,000 million to fix the economy.

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William C Thompson, Jr. says that he expects far more job losses than originally forecast.

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Washington manufacturer Danaher announces 1700 job cuts over the next year

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As HSBC's management rolls around the world conducting its staff and efficiency review, an additional 500 jobs have been earmarked to be cut from the UK workforce of more than 58,000.

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As the financial crisis hits the top end of spending Aston Martin, which had previously announced an extension of its Christmas shutdown has now said it will have to cut 600 jobs from its manufacturing plant.

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Global banks are in global crisis and Credit Suisse says that it is to cut 650 jobs, mainly in its flagship investment banking division.

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Barclays' Bank announced 3,000 job losses in October - but it is now thought to be preparing for more.

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Around 25,000 jobs at Woolworths retail arm and 5,000 at the entertainment division are under threat as the 800-store retail giant collapses as the UK economy founders.

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MFI, which suffers badly in every UK housing slump, has called in the administrators, putting 1,200 jobs at risk.

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Spain, Belgium and Sweden will be the primary places that the pharmaceuticals giant will cut most of the 1400 jobs it has announced it will remove - but over a period of up to 2013.

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200 jobs are to go at defence contractor BAe. It says the British government is spending less on armoured vehicles.

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